Situación Colombia. Junio 2023

Summary

Colombia crecerá 1,2% en 2023 y 1,5% en 2024, apoyada en el crecimiento del sector público, del consumo privado por servicios y de las exportaciones. La inflación continuará ralentizándose y la política monetaria siendo restrictiva por un tiempo. La desaceleración de los países desarrollados será un desafío para el país.

Key points

• Key points:
• In 2023 and 2024, the service and non-durable goods sectors will continue to outperform the durable goods sector, as household consumption and exports will continue to be driven by these sectors. In addition, the role of central and local governments, in terms of spending, will remain important.
• Headline inflation, which has already started a gradual deceleration since the second quarter of 2023, will continue to decline gradually, reaching 9.2% at the end of this year and 5.2% in December 2023. Meanwhile, core inflation will start to decline from the second half of this year and continue to do so in 2024.
• The policy rate will remain at its current level of 13.25%, the highest since 1999, until the end of this year, and will be 12.5% in December 2023 and 7.0% in December 2024.
• The country's external deficit will be above 4% of GDP in both years, being higher in 2024 (4.1% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024) due to a higher import impulse in that year, explained by the recovery of domestic demand, and exports remaining stable in 2024 compared to 2023.
• In terms of global growth, the world is estimated to grow 2.9% this year and 2.9% in 2024, down from 3.4% in 2022, and higher than the figures expected for Latin America, with 1.1% growth in both 2023 and 2024.

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