Colombia | Comments on the CARF public debt projection tool

Summary

The Autonomous Committee of the Fiscal Rule -CARF- made a public debt projection tool available to the public and, prior to its publication, BBVA Research served as a pilot test of its use. This presentation contains comments from BBVA Research on the tool. Others were already incorporated in the tool.

Key points

• Key points:
• Knowledge of public debt is crucial. It is relevant for rating agencies and analysts, for the authorities and for citizens in general. Moreover, it is of particular relevance in terms of the fiscal rule, since, once its transition period ends in 2026, the definition of its targets is tied to the central government's net debt.
• The new tool is very positive because it allows for a common language to discuss debt issues, brings simplicity to debt estimation, which is very complex, gives greater access to information and contributes to building new questions and answers on debt.
• The tool allows to simulate the debt with the analyst's own assumptions, to deepen the analysis of the government's scenarios and their assumptions, to detail and analyse the different variables that compose the gross and net debt, and to have a comprehensive medium-term view, among others.
• For the tool to fully meet its objective, it is necessary to Keep information up to date and available on variables that cannot be calculated by those using the model.

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