Colombia | BBVA GDP Tracker, September 2023

Summary

The BBVA GDP Tracker, which is a real-time estimation tool for economic activity, anticipates the beginning of a slow recovery of GDP from September 2023. However, this upturn will come from low levels of economic growth, which are well below the country's historical average.

Key points

• Key points:
• According to the GDP Tracker, the Colombian economy remains at low levels of activity, but there appears to be a gradual change in trend since September.
• Although GDP Tracker shows an initial recovery, it is necessary to wait for new data to consolidate our positive view of economic activity.
• The available economic data are mixed and do not allow us to confirm the improvement in activity: those related to household spending are negative, while those related to manufacturing show improvements.
• Hence, we maintain our 2023 GDP growth projection at 1.2%.

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