Colombia | BBVA GDP Tracker, July 2023

Summary

BBVA Research, through its GDP Tracker tool, monitors the performance of the economy in real time and makes short-term GDP forecasts. For the second quarter, the GDP tracker forecasts YoY GDP growth between 0.1% and 1.3%. In addition, for the third quarter, growth is forecast to be between 1.1% and 2.2%.

Key points

• Key points:
• The economy should have had its minimum YoY expansion rate sometime between April and May of this year.
• As anticipated by BBVA Research, the economic recovery will be gradual starting in the second half of this year.
• The big data indicators of consumption and investment, constructed by BBVA Research through the transactions of BBVA Colombia's clients, show a slightly stronger improvement in activity than estimated with other indicators from external sources.
• Consumption of goods showed the strongest deceleration, affecting the activity of related sectors, such as retail trade and manufacturing production of the items most related to domestic demand.
• Consumption and exports of services remained in positive territory, showing greater resilience to the economic slowdown.

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