Colombia | As expected, inflation continued to rise, standing at 11.4% in September

Inflation continued to rise and in September registered an annual change of 11.4% and a monthly change of 0.93%. The figure was higher than expected by the average of market analysts and BBVA Research, at the upper limit of forecasts (0.92%), although it was lower than the monthly inflation observed in the previous month.

Key points

• Key points:
• Food inflation remained at a high level, reaching an annual change of 26.6%. Within these, processed products showed the strongest acceleration in annual terms, while meats decelerated.
• Core inflation, as measured by non-food inflation, reached 8.32%, accelerating 49 bps from the previous month. The result was above analysts' expectations by 18 bps (8.15% annual change expected in Banco de la República's survey).
• Within core inflation, the biggest acceleration was in goods, with significant pressures from items such as air transport, cleaning and maintenance products and footwear, while in the services basket, higher education tuition fees and vehicle insurance reflected the biggest acceleration in the month, albeit anticipated.
• BBVA Research expects inflation to continue rising and to peak in the fourth quarter of this year. Cost pressures will moderate, allowing food inflation to come down, however core inflation still has room for increases, especially from services.

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