China | Unmask the veil of today’s China

Summary

We analyze and explain China's recent main policy initiatives and the possible misunderstandings among global investors. We also evaluate their implications on the growth outlook.

Key points

• Key points:
• China's short term growth is decelerating with its long-term potential growth converging to around 4% in 2035.
• Evergrande is set to drag down growth but unlikely to cause a systemic debacle.
• The policy initiatives are targeting inclusive growth and a green economy with tighter government controls.
• We interpret some new concepts which are easy to get misunderstood, including common prosperity, dual circulation, etc.
• We also explain the recent regulatory storms and China's transformation to German-type of high-end manufacturing oriented growth model.

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