China | Understanding 2023 July Politburo meeting

Summary

The 2023 July Politburo meeting analyzed the economic situation and pointed out the policy direction in the short and long term.

Key points

• Key points:
• In the context that Chinese economic recovery came to a halt in Q2 2023 amid the fading effect of reopening, the July Politburo meeting became particularly important, as the market anticipates it will start a new round of policy stimulus.
• Its concentrations include several perspectives, such as promulgating stimulus measures, promising housing market easing measures, promulgating local government debt resolution plans, promoting industrial upgrading and boosting capital markets development etc.
• It pledges more forceful countercyclical efforts to enhance domestic demand and improve market sentiments in the short term, while promulgates a series of structural reform measures to prevent risks in the longer term.
• Against the background of policy stimulus announced in July Politburo meeting, we expect a meaningful growth rebound in Q3 and Q4, making the government’s 2023 full-year growth target of 5% easy to achieve.

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