China | RMB exchange rate outlook under the trade war threat

Summary

RMB exchange rate is on its second wave of depreciation since the devaluation in August 2015. Escalating trade war, economic slowdown and divergence of US and China’s monetary policy contributed to the depreciation. The authorities' attitude has been from “ride-on-the-wave” to “lean-against-the-wind” and RMB outlook is hinging on the meeting between Trump and Xi in G20.

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