China Economic Outlook. November 2024

Summary

Chinese authorities have promulgated a large size stimulus package to support domestic growth, amid Trump's win in the US presidential election.

Key points

• Key points:
• Trump's win in the US election and his 60% tariffs on all Chinese exports to the US will add more headwinds to the Chinese economic outlook, which we estimated will drag China's growth by around 1%.
• Chinese authorities have promulgated a jumbo size stimulus package starting from September 24, including monetary and fiscal easing, housing support measures and stock market support measures.
• It is still too early to evaluate the effectiveness of the jumbo size stimulus on Chinese growth and to what extent it could offset Trump's tariff effect, given that we only have October monthly data announced after the stimulus plan.
• In recent economic activities, the imbalance between the supply side and the demand side still exists. However, we observe some bounce back on consumption data after the stimulus package.
• We expect the housing market will achieve soft-landing in the next year. However, it is not possible to go back to real estate's golden time in the future.

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