Chile: September's CPI expected at +0.74% MoM, while October forecast is conditioned to specific price hikes

Summary

We expect September's CPI at around +0.74% MoM driven by increases in foodstuffs and transportation. Specifically, we estimates increases in transportation fares, fruits, vegetables, meats and gasoline prices. In this way, the annual inflation would reach 4.8%, markedly above the ceiling of the CB’s tolerance range, which also decreases the probability of observing another 25bp cut in the MPR at October's meeting. Nonetheless, we do not see a suppression of the dovish bias. For October's CPI, we forecast an increase in a range between +0.1% and +0.3% MoM, lower than reflected in forwards and conditioned to expected increases in the price of electricity and cigarettes.

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