Chile: Positive surprises in activity by sectors show signs of a mild recovery trend since December 2014

Summary

Above both our and consensus expectations, manufacturing output increased 3.1% YoY in December 2014, mainly thanks to chemicals, metals and wine. Mining production decreased 0.9% YoY due to decline in copper output. Meanwhile, retail sales increased by 1.9% YoY, better than expected, with a positive contribution from non-durable consumption and a negative one from durables (mainly cars). All in all, we estimate the Imacec rose between 2.1% and 2.6% YoY in the last month of 2014, closing that year with an expansion of 1.8% in GDP. Finally, our assessment of the recent developments in activity by sectors still points to a mild recovery this year that supports our view of GDP growth around 3.1%.

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