Chile: Aggregate activity will likely to show a negative interannual print in July

Retail sales registered a weak growth of 1.5% YoY, above our expectations but below those of the market (BBVAe: -0.2% YoY; consensus: +1.9% YoY), with positive contributions from clothing, footwear and negative ones from electronics. Manufacturing decreased by 4.1% YoY (BBVAe: -2.5% YoY), while mining production also decreases at a pace of 2.4% YoY. All in all, we estimate a weak monthly activity index (Imacec) growth by around -0.1% YoY in July, the first inter-annual contraction since October 2009 that supports the downward bias in our GDP growth forecasts for 2014.

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