Chile: Activity data by sector disappointed and anticipates an Imacec at around 1.9% YoY for June

Summary

Retail sales expanded a poor 2.3% YoY in June, below both our expectations and those of the market (BBVAe: +5.1% YoY, consensus: +4.8% YoY), with positive contributions from clothing, footwear and electronic items and negative ones from car sales. Manufacturing decreased by 0.7% YoY (BBVAe: +0.9% YoY, consensus: +1.0% YoY), while mining production increased by 1.3% YoY. All in all, we estimate the monthly activity index (Imacec) grew by around 1.9% YoY in June, slightly below our preliminary expected growth range from 2.2% to 2.6% YoY. Finally, if there are no surprises in June’s CPI (BBVAe: 0.18% MoM) the Central Bank should continue with the monetary easing towards a MPR of at least 3.25% in 2014 eop.

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