Chile: Activity by sector points to a weak Imacec in November. Labor market showed resilience

Summary

Manufacturing decreased 1.1% YoY (BBVAe: +0.5% YoY) in November, while mining production decreased by 5.5% YoY due to lower copper extraction. Retail sales increased a slight 0.4% YoY, although better than expected (BBVAe: +0.0% YoY). All in all, we estimate the Imacec grew between 0.7% and 1.1% YoY in November. Labor market figures still showed resilience due to better than expected job-creation figures in November (+1.8% YoY), allowing a decrease in the unemployment rate to 6.1% (vs. 6.4% in October). The change in the composition of employment towards a fragile one continues but at a moderate pace, with increases of +1.4% YoY in self-employment, while salaried job-creation expanded at +1.1% YoY. Meanwhile, the labour force grew 2.1% YoY, in line with historical patterns. Quarterly new jobs came mainly from agriculture and commerce, both seasonally related. All in all, and despite this positive surprise, we still expect a contained upward path in the unemployment rate towards 2015.

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