Argentina | Real-time consumption monitoring (Jun 16, 2021)

Summary

Total consumption rebounded after the drop at the end of May, although YoY growth is still negative. The level of spending so far in June is below that of the same period in 2020. Our indicators forecast a weak second quarter due to mobility restrictions.

Key points

• Key points:
• Consumption in services registered an average growth of 7% YoY in the last measurement, in contrast to spending on goods, which averaged -17% YoY in the same period.
• The new period of limited mobility made evident the sensitivity of most categories to the drop in circulation.
• Based on the correlation of official industry and construction data with our real-time consumption indicators, we foresee a contractionary second quarter.
• The fuel expenditure indicator (a proxy for the level of economic activity) shows a significant parallelism with Google's residential and labor mobility indices, supporting the idea of a first half of the year weakened by the second wave of coronavirus.

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