Argentina | November 2024 National Flash Inflation: 2.4% mom; 166% yoy.

Summary

National inflation in November was 2.4% m/m (166% y/y, 112% ytd), below market expectations (REM-BCRA: 2.8% m/m). This is the lowest monthly value since July 2020.

Key points

• Key points:
• Core inflation stood at 2.7% m/m (155.4% y/y, 99.1% so far in 2024), exactly in line with the average market analysts’ expectations. The downward surprise was explained by the behavior of seasonal prices, which registered a negative variation of -1.2% m/m.
• A significant discrepancy persists between the evolution of goods prices (+1.6% m/m) and services prices (+4.4% m/m), with services now increasing at nearly three times the rate of goods. Goods remain more closely tied to the evolution of the official exchange rate.
• We expect a slight acceleration of inflation in December to 2.8% m/m due to the normalization of seasonal prices, regulated prices rising above the general level, and some upward pressure from meat prices.
• We have revised our inflation forecast for 2024 down to 118% (from the previous 120%).

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