All eyes on the third quarter GDP, which we expect to grow by 0.65% QoQ, after seasonal adjustments

Summary

After a quarterly increase of 1.04% in the second quarter, we estimate that the Mexican economy will have risen slowly, with GDP growth of around 0.65% QoQ in the third. The key elements underpinning this growth are, on the one hand, a moderate increase in the rate of industrial production growth in July, August and September (1.9%, 1.8% and 2.3% YoY, sa, respectively) and on the other, the acceleration in exports, particularly manufacturing, from July to September (7.6%, 4.4% and 11.2% YoY, respectively). If this quarterly growth is confirmed, the annual growth rate for 2014 may be slightly below the 2.5% originally forecast

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