Aggregate activity grew 2.3% YoY in April

Summary

Monthly activity index increased 2.3% YoY in March (+0.0% MoM sa), slightly below both our and market consensus (2.5% and 2.4% YoY, respectively). The figure was mainly driven by positive contributions from mining and personal and entrepreneur services partially offset by declines in manufacture output. With this print, aggregate activity growth has accumulated a 2.6% YoY at April. For May, we forecast some recovery in activity figures towards an expansion range of between 2.5% and 3.0% in annual terms. In this context, monetary policy should remain in a wait and see stance in the short term, expecting that CPI inflation figures to fall back.

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