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November 18, 2024
Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential elections. What's more, the Republicans will hold the majority of both houses, allowing them to push through their fiscal plans. What promises has he made and, if he delivers them, how could they impact the global economy?
November 14, 2024
Energy consumption is vital for understanding a country's economic, environmental, and social dynamics. This analysis explores key trends in national energy usage in the United States and offers a comparison of energy consumption among its states, highlighting their diverse impacts on the overall trends.
November 8, 2024
We continue to think that the rate cut cycle still has legs, but following the outcome of the election the Fed will likely end the cycle sooner than previously thought on greater inflationary challenges under Trump’s potential policies.
November 5, 2024
FOMC members will likely continue to signal that their plan continues to be a gradual normalization of the fed funds rate. They are likely to agree to continue normalizing the monetary stance with more cautious 25bp rate cuts.
November 1, 2024
Remittances show high volatility in the first 9 months of 2024: 5 months with growth and 4 months with falls. Possibly, the tense electoral environment in the US has an impact on the flow of new migrants and the migrant population residing in that country.
October 24, 2024
The market is far from having ruled out the possibility of further rate cuts though. Upcoming jobs and inflation data are likely to favor the view that the economy is expanding at a healthy pace rather than overheating, potentially leading to a modest decline in long-term yields.
October 7, 2024
Despite uncertainty and high interest rates, investment remains strong in countries like the U.S. and France, especially in intellectual property and ICT, but not in Spain, Canada, and most emerging markets. GDP growth remains key, but digitalization and climate transition policies will drive future investment.
October 2, 2024
Large fluctuations in the USD/MXN exchange rate impact Mexican migrants' decisions on the amount to remit. In August, the peso depreciated 5.4%, which boosted a 9.3% growth in remittances to Mexico in dollars and an increase converted into pesos of 17.0% in real terms.
September 26, 2024
Long-term yields have ceased from being driven by changes in inflation compensation, but they could decline markedly if markets begin to price in that the Fed will need to lower rates below neutral to avoid a recession.
