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March 24, 2025
Europe | Turn of the tide for the euro
In the final quarter of 2024, Donald Trump’s return to power in the United States had a negative impact on the euro. Aggressive protectionist policies and increased fiscal stimulus in the country were expected to push the dollar higher.
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March 19, 2025
US | Fed holds as it waits for further clarity on the effects of policy changes
Powell signaled in the Q&A two complementary factors behind unchanged interest rate projections, which still point to 50bp worth of rate cuts later this year: i) weaker growth but higher inflation which “[...] kind of balance each other out”; and ii) uncertainty.
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March 17, 2025
US | Fed set to hold rates on mounting risks despite recent signs of economic softening
We do not expect either the statement or Powell to hint at a possible rate cut soon amid heightened downside risks to growth and instead expect both to convey that amid lingering uncertainty the Fed remains comfortable in its current wait-and-see mode and is in “no hurry” to resume the rate cut cycle.
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March 17, 2025
Global | The economic impact of Trump’s tariffs
Since his return to the White House, Donald Trump has been ramping up his protectionist agenda, reigniting uncertainty over trade and global growth. The increase in tariffs on imports of goods not only affects the US economy, but its repercussions extend worldwide.
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March 4, 2025
Global | EUR/USD Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Long-Term Perspective
We estimate the EUR/USD equilibrium exchange rate using a holistic approach that distinguishes between the strengths of the euro and the dollar. Our analysis shows that the current misalignment is due to an overvalued dollar, while the euro remains close to equilibrium, with its role as a reserve currency slightly reduced.
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February 27, 2025
US | Do lower yields signal that the Fed might shift its focus back to growth risks?
A recent string of weak data together with the postponement of tariffs and a less worrisome fiscal bill than feared likely eased market participants’ bets of a scenario in which the Fed keeps interest rates at their current level for the whole year.
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