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January 23, 2025
The Central Bank (CBRT) lowered the policy rate by another rate cut of 250 bps to 45%, in line with market and our expectations. The bank also signaled that it may introduce new tools to sterilize the increasing excess TL liquidity in the market.
January 17, 2025
Incoming hard data points to a faster recovery in 4Q24 than our previous stagnant growth expectation on quarterly basis. We expect the GDP growth to reach around 3% in 2024 but acknowledge some upside risks recently emerge on our 2025 growth forecast of 2.5%.
January 3, 2025
Consumer prices rose by %1.03 m/m in December, lower than consensus and our expectations (both at 1.6%), leading year-end annual inflation to reach 44.4%. We maintain our year-end 2025 inflation forecasts of 26.5% on a more balanced risk outlook.
December 26, 2024
The Central Bank (CBRT) lowered the policy rate by 250bps to 47.5%, beating the market expectations of 150-200bps cut (vs. our 100bps cut call), but with a narrowed down symmetric interest rate corridor of 150bps from 300bps. The distribution of the meeting dates will be key to see how the real rates will evolve.
December 20, 2024
The weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits accelerated from 0.3% to 1%. The acceleration was due to both consumer and commercial credits in the sector. Its 4w trend continued to move upwards for the 3rd week in a row and reached almost 0.7% (highest since June’24).
December 6, 2024
Profitability and NIMs of the banking sector stay under pressure due to high funding and RR costs and regulatory lending caps We expect the easing cycle of the CBRT to be a cautious combination of both rate cuts and easing over deposit and credit rules, helping the sector recover gradually 1Q25 onwards.
December 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.24 m/m in November, higher than consensus (2.0%), with no improvement in the underlying inflation trend. Considering November realizations, we evaluate annual consumer inflation is likely to finish the year at around 45% and decline to 26.5% in 2025 on our assumption of an effective policy mix.
December 2, 2024
We expect US protectionism to fuel uncertainty, and pressure global growth downwards and inflation upwards. In Türkiye, soft landing efforts remain on growth and employment outlook, increasing the downside risks on public spending cuts. Monetary policy communication becomes less hawkish and signals an easing cycle soon.
November 29, 2024
Turkish economy experienced a mild recession, in line with our expectations, contracting by 0.2% q/q in 3Q24 (vs. -0.2% q/q in 2Q24) and posting 2.1 y/y growth. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts point to a weak quarterly GDP growth for 4Q24, which could result nearly 3% y/y in 2024.
