Filter all of our publications to find the ones about the geography you are most interested in.
Filter all of our publications to find the ones you are most interested in by content language, date, geography and/or topic.
Sort our publications chronologically from newest to oldest, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.
Sort publications according to the number of time reads by our users, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.
April 3, 2025
Consumer inflation rose by 2.46% m/m, lower than both our expectation (3%) and the market consensus (2.9%), driving annual inflation down to 38.1%. We have revised our 2025 year-end inflation forecast to 32% from 29% on the expected pass-through from the recent currency depreciation.
March 20, 2025
Credit growth accelerated throughout February beyond the growth caps. Therefore, the monthly growth limit has been reduced further for FC lending at the start of March. The CBRT aims not to allow demand conditions to contain the disinflation process, signaling new macro-prudential measures if necessary.
March 11, 2025
Global financial volatility has risen due to the impact of evolving US policies, which we expect to create negative shocks. In Türkiye, financial conditions have recently eased above the neutral level and credit growth has accelerated beyond the capped segments, increasing the challenges on the inflation outlook.
March 7, 2025
We integrate our findings in export concentration, value added in exports, and economic complexity for Türkiye and Mexico. While both countries have increased their complexity through time, targeted fiscal incentives directed towards competitive industries may help attain more complex products in exports.
March 6, 2025
The Central Bank (CBRT) lowered the policy rate by 250bps to 42.5% as expected. Following the positive surprise of Feb CPI, the CBRT remains comfortable despite stronger domestic demand than expected. We expect 250bps cut in April and the pace of rate cuts to decelerate June onwards, reaching 31.5% policy rate by end 2025.
March 3, 2025
Consumer prices rose by 2.27% m/m in February, lower than both consensus (3%) and our expectation (2.9%), leading to a decline in annual inflation (39.1%). We maintain our 2025 end inflation forecast of 29%, which we had revised from 26.5%, following the upward revision of the CBRT in the first inflation report of the year.
February 28, 2025
The Turkish economy grew by 1.7% q/q in 4Q24, close to our expectations, leading to 3.2% y/y growth in 2024. Our monthly GDP nowcast shows a continuation of the recovery trend in 1Q25 with a 1-1.5% q/q growth as flash indicators signal as of February.
February 11, 2025
Profitability and NIMs of the sector have started to improve in 4Q24, which will continue with the rate-cutting cycle of the CBRT. The monetary stance remains to be supported with the macro-prudential measures. We expect the ROE of deposit banks to barely improve to 30% by end 2025 from 28.4% at the end of 2024.
February 3, 2025
Consumer inflation climbed up to 5.03% m/m, higher than consensus and our expectation (both at 4.3%), while annual inflation declined further to 42.12% on favorable base effects. We maintain our year-end 2025 inflation forecasts of 26.5%, despite the existence of more pronounced upward inflationary risks.
January 23, 2025
The Central Bank (CBRT) lowered the policy rate by another rate cut of 250 bps to 45%, in line with market and our expectations. The bank also signaled that it may introduce new tools to sterilize the increasing excess TL liquidity in the market.
January 17, 2025
Incoming hard data points to a faster recovery in 4Q24 than our previous stagnant growth expectation on quarterly basis. We expect the GDP growth to reach around 3% in 2024 but acknowledge some upside risks recently emerge on our 2025 growth forecast of 2.5%.
