Türkiye
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November 21, 2024
Türkiye | The CBRT seems to be ready for easing
The CBRT kept the policy rate at 50% with important changes in their communication, signaling an easing cycle as early as December. We believe the CBRT will be required to start with very cautious steps and expect the first rate cut in December with 100bps.
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November 20, 2024
Türkiye | Supply conditions weaker than demand
Growth outlook remained weak, while the demand indicators point to a slower-than-desired correction. Considering tight financial conditions and the gradual moderation in domestic demand, we expect the economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2024 but downside risks are increasing on our 2.7% growth forecast for 2025.
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November 15, 2024
Türkiye: Weekly Banking Tracker, 08 November 2024
Since Nov 8th was the day for finalizing credit growth monthly caps, the weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits decelerated further from 0.5% to 0.2% due to consumer credits in the sector. 4w trend rate of total credit growth remained stable at 0.4%.
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November 12, 2024
Türkiye | The impact of climate change on tourism demand in Türkiye
Tourism activities are highly dependent on weather conditions, and hence, vulnerable to the impact of climate change. Our analysis of Turkish tourism demand within the context of climate conditions points to possible changes in seasonality and quantity of tourism flows across provinces, depending on their tourism type.
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November 8, 2024
Türkiye: Weekly Banking Tracker, 01 November 2024
On the week of 1st November, the weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits slightly decelerated from 0.6% to 0.5% due to both consumer and commercial credits in the sector. However, last 2 weeks’ push moved up the trend rate of total credit growth a bit.
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November 4, 2024
Türkiye | Inflation outlook becomes more challenging
Consumer prices rose by %2.88 m/m in September, higher than our expectation and consensus (2.7% vs. 2.5%), while the monthly consumer inflation trend eased only limitedly. We now expect year-end inflation to be nearly 45% and risks on our 2025 year-end forecast of 25% become clearly tilted to the upside.
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October 25, 2024
Türkiye: Weekly Banking Tracker, 18 October 2024
On the week of 18th October, the weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits decelerated sharply from 0.2% to 0.05% led by the contraction in consumer credits of public banks. Trend rate of total credit growth continued to move down as well.
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October 18, 2024
Türkiye: Weekly Banking Tracker, 11 October 2024
Since Oct 11th was the day for finalizing credit growth monthly caps, the weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits decelerated further to 0.2% from 0.4% mainly on top of commercial credits in the overall sector, which brought down the trend rate of total credit growth as well.
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October 17, 2024
Türkiye | The CBRT keeps a similar tone to Sep MPC
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the policy rate, keeping a tone similar to September MPC, despite the negative surprise of the September inflation. We maintain our first rate cut expectation in December with a 250 bps cut, where the timing and magnitude would depend on how the monthly inflation trend is improving.
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October 17, 2024
Türkiye | Mild contraction signals in 3Q GDP
The moderation in domestic demand continues, while the production side demonstrates a clearer worsening trend in 3Q. We expect GDP growth to be 3.2% and retreat further to 2.7% on restrictive monetary policy, tight financial conditions and expected fiscal consolidation in 2025.
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