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Following the strong push seen just before the official holidays’ week, FC adjusted weekly credit growth decelerated and turned into negative growth on the week ending on June 21st, also taking into account the negative calendar impact.
The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations. We expect that annual inflation will come down to 45-50% by September on base effects before ending the year at 43%. We believe that there would be only a limited room to start easing cycle very gradually in 4Q24 considering high inflation expectations.
This study demonstrates how expenditures between regions can be used to estimate domestic tourism, and gain further insights into its dynamics. We discuss additional use cases of the methodology, and offer suggestions on how it can be specializ…
FC adjusted weekly credit growth continued to decelerate for the 2nd week in a row; and turned into negative growth from 1% to -0.06% due to significant deceleration in both commercial and consumer credits in the sector.
After the strong growth performance (2.4% q/q) in 1Q24, our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 0-0.5% quarterly growth in 2Q24. Considering the strong performance of 1H24, risks start to be tilted slightly to the upside for our 2024 GDP forecast of…
The committed actions against inflation are well-received. Foreign currency demand of residents prior to the March local election has reversed and foreigners’ inflow for Turkish assets has accelerated. Yet, lagging fiscal measures & macro-prudential policies on retailer spending keep challenges on inflation outlook.
FC adjusted weekly credit growth decelerated from 1.6% to almost 1% in the week ending by May 31st due to commercial credits in private banks.
Consumer prices rose by 3.37% m/m in May, higher than expectations (3.1% consensus and 3% ours), leading the annual inflation to rise to 75.45%. We expect inflation to decline faster in 2H24 on favorable base effects and reach 43% at the year e…
Turkish economy grew by 5.7% y/y in 1Q above the market consensus of 5.5% but lower than our expectation of 6%. Given the strong performance of 1H24 and lagged effects of expected fiscal consolidation and monetary policy, risks start to be tilt…
FC adjusted weekly credit growth accelerated strongly from 0.1% to 1.6% in the week ending by May 24th mainly due to both consumer and commercial credits in private banks.
Profitability of the sector is under pressure of high funding costs which continues to be partially offset by fees & commission income. Credit growth will be subdued due to regulationary caps in the very short term.
FC adjusted weekly credit growth decelerated further to 0.1% in the week ending by May 17th due to consumer credits in public banks.
