Spain

Asturias' GDP could increase by 2.3% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025, which would allow for the creation of 13,700 new jobs in the region in the biennium.

The recent increase in inflation, not seen in decades, has shown our aversion to the constant escalation of prices. Although inflation has already fallen, it is expected to stay above 3%, and around 2.5% in 2025, affected by the performance of the cost of services.

Several institutions, including BBVA Research, have upgraded their GDP expectations for Spain. However, different factors are limiting the growth of private consumption.

GDP growth forecast for 2024 is raised to 2.5% thanks to the good performance of external demand, the increase in the labor force, and the execution of Recovery Plan funds. However, it will moderate to 2.1% in 2025, largely due to constraints in tourism growth.

Since the end of 2019 through the first quarter of 2024, the Gross Value Added (GVA) of the services sector has increased by 6.3%, compared to 3.7% for the total economy. In addition, the number of hours worked increased by more than 2%, compared to 0.9% for all sectors.

In this edition of the QLMO, we analyze the labor market situation with data available up to the first quarter of 2024. We review the trends of the main indicators, examine the differences between the Labor Force Survey and administrative records, and highlight Spain's productivity deficit.