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June 24, 2024
This presentation, delivered on the 10th anniversary of the BBVA Pension Institute in Portugal, analyzes the economic forecasts for Portugal and Spain, and the challenge of long-term aging of their population, as one of the challenges facing public systems pensions in Europe.
April 28, 2021
GDP contracted by 7.6% in 2020. Increased uncertainty about the spread of COVID-19 and the measures implemented to contain it weighed on activity. The economy is set to slow over the coming quarters and is expected to grow by 4.0% in 2021 and accelerate to 5.1% in 2022.
May 8, 2020
In Portugal, GDP could fall by about 6.5% in 2020, and the unemployment rate could exceed 10%, although uncertainty is particularly high, especially in relation to the duration of the restrictions imposed and their impact on different sectors. There are many scenarios that are still possible under reasonable assumptions.
December 12, 2019
GDP growth in Portugal is expected to be slightly higher than estimated a few months ago. Specifically, GDP could reach 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. This upward revision is explained by the historical review of the activity data carried out by the INE and because of the positive trend shown by some components of demand.
July 22, 2019
Growth for 2019 and 2020 would stand at approximately 1.7%YoY, 2 pp above that previously estimated in both cases. In 2019, it is expected that the slowdown in consumption will be offset by the increase observed in investment, whilst next year, improved exports should continue against a backdrop of recovery of global demand
June 3, 2019
A couple of years ago, the risk premium paid by the Portuguese 10-year government bond against its German counterpart was hovering between 350 and 400 basis points (bp). Meanwhile, the Spanish 10-year bond was paying between 100 and 125 bp.
May 24, 2019
Our GDP growth forecast for Portugal has been slightly revised downwards to 1.5% 2019. The Portuguese economy must successfully face many long-term challenges to seize the opportunities of the digital revolution
April 16, 2019
After Portuguese GDP grew at an average rate of 2 .1% YoY during 2018, BBVA Research forecasts that its growth rate will moderate to around 1.5% in 2019. This scenario is in a context of a slowing global economy, particularly in Europe. Even so, the recovery will continue, supported by positive momentum in domestic demand, which will enable GDP to rise by 0.3% in 1Q19.
January 21, 2019
BBVA Research estimates that growth in the Portuguese economy in 4Q18 was around 0.4% QoQ SWDA. Domestic demand will have continued to be the main support of activity, while the external sector’s contribution to growth will have remained negative. This would be consistent with BBVA Research’s forecast for Portugal’s GDP growth in 2018 (2.1% YoY) and 2019 (1.8% YoY).
October 1, 2018
Portuguese GDP grew 0.6% t/t in 2Q18, mainly due to the increase in gross capital formation and the improvement in the external sector, and despite the low growth of domestic final consumption. Based on the indicators available so far, BBVA Research estimates that growth in 3Q18 will be approximately 0.3% QoQ SWDA.
June 21, 2018
Portugal’s GDP grew by 0.4% QoQ in 1Q18, 0.3 pp less than the growth seen in the previous quarter and that forecast by BBVA Research. Domestic demand continues to grow strongly, in contrast with the recent weakness seen in exports, which have been affected by the reduced thrust of the euro zone economy. BBVA Research estimates that growth in 2Q18 will be around 0.3% QoQ.
March 19, 2018
Portugal saw out 2017 with the highest growth in GDP recorded since 2001, 2.7% YoY. The most recent monthly indicators confirm the trends in consumption and investment, signalling that the Portuguese economy will grow by around 0.7% QoQ in 1Q18, making it possible to maintain GDP growth forecasts for the whole of 2018 and 2019 at 2.3% and 1.8% respectively.
