Peru

Output will grow 2,9% this year (previous forecast: 2,7%), supported by a new pension funds withdrawal. Sectors affected by weather anomalies in 2023 will recover and non-primary sectors too thanks to increased private spending. In 2025, once the impact of pension funds withdrawals is exhausted, growth would reach 2,7%.

GDP expanded 5.3% YoY in April. This result was influenced by the fact that some activities were affected by two more days of productive activity given that Easter was celebrated in April last year, while this year it was scheduled in March.

The consumer price index contracted 0.09% m/m in May. The reduction in food prices and electricity rates stood out. The interannual rate was 2.0% (2.4% in April) in the center of the Central Bank's target range.

The monetary poverty rate increased from 27.5% in 2022 to 29.0% in 2023 (BBVA Research estimate published in March of this year: 29.1%), moving further away from the pre-pandemic level (the lowest in 16 years) and returning to a record similar to that of 2010-2011.

The Big Data Consumption and Investment Indicators anticipate that domestic demand would have recovered in the first quarter of the year and would have maintained the pace at the beginning of the second quarter (April).

The consumer price index contracted 0.05% MoM in April. The result for the month is explained by supply and seasonal factors. The year-on-year rate was 2.4% (3.0% in March) within the Central Bank's target range.