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November 16, 2024
Mexico | Positive signals from the 2025 economic package
A lower deficit will promote more stability of the public debt-to-GDP ratio in the future, but the optimistic assumption of economic growth prompts us to foresee a Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) of 52.9% vs. 51.4% of GDP anticipated by the Finance Ministry.
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November 15, 2024
Mexico | All members are now on board with the rate cut cycle
A majority will remain determined to continue the easing cycle over the coming months, but we now expect Banxico to lower the policy rate to 8.00% by the end of next year (up from our previous 7.50% forecast).
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November 13, 2024
Mexico | Monthly report on banking and financial system. November 2024
In September, current credit to the NFPS slowed down 0.5% YoY in real terms, as a result of the lower dynamism of consumer and business credit. Traditional deposits decelerated 0.6% YoY in real terms, as a consequence of the continued weakness of term deposits. A feeble economic activity seems to lie beneath both dynamics.
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November 12, 2024
Mexico | Banxico is set to keep cutting rates amid cooling core services inflation
Banxico is likely set to cut the policy rate by 25 bps this week in a backdrop of easing core services inflation, which is starting to turn a corner amid a challenging context for economic activity.
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November 12, 2024
Mexico | Formal employment does not change trend in October, worsens outlook
The weakness in employment, observed since the beginning of the year, has intensified more than expected due to factors such as the closure of federal infrastructure projects and political and economic uncertainty. In October, formal employment grew by 1.4%, falling 0.3 percentage points short of expectations.
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November 8, 2024
Mexico | Trade protectionism and economic risks for Mexico
Given more synchronization of economic growth and inflation between Mexico and the US due to the presence of Global Value Chains (GVC), the cost of protectionist measures in the latter (the imposition of a 10% universal tariff on all imported products) on activity, inflation and welfare of the former would be amplified.
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November 6, 2024
Mexico | How much do banks and BBVA Mexico contribute to financial inclusion?
This note analyzes the contribution of development banking, multiple banking and exclusively BBVA México to financial inclusion by analyzing access with infrastructure at the municipal level and analyzing usage, with information published by the CNBV, comparing the results of 2014Q2 with 2024Q2.
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November 4, 2024
Mexico | Regional Sectoral Outlook. Second Half 2024
The Mexican economy will grow at an annual rate of 1.2% by the end of 2024. Construction will close with a GDP growth of 10.1%, accumulated to the 2Q24, and will sustain the weak growth of the Mexican economy in 2024.
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November 1, 2024
Mexico | Volatility in remittances, fall 4.6%. At risk due to US elections?
Remittances show high volatility in the first 9 months of 2024: 5 months with growth and 4 months with falls. Possibly, the tense electoral environment in the US has an impact on the flow of new migrants and the migrant population residing in that country.
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