Publications

In March, the BCRP kept its rate at 4.25% for the sixth straight month, as expected by the market. Higher inflation reflects three transitory supply shocks. Monitoring inflation expectations will be key to sustaining the current neutral stance.

The Peruvian economy keeps showing a solid performance, supported by the dynamism of private spending. Recently, however, three negative supply shocks have affected it, driving down the output growth forecast for 2026 from 3,1 % to 2,9 %. In 2027, the supply shocks will have dissipated and GDP will grow by 3,1 %.

Annual inflation in Colombia stood at 5.29% in February, registering a slight decline explained by the moderation in regulated prices. Despite this downside surprise, pressures persist in food, goods, and labor-intensive services, affected by the increase in the minimum wage.

Over the past year, the global economy has once again shown that stability is always provisional. The economic policy measures of the U.S. administration, together with persistent geopolitical tensions, have substantially increased economic uncertainty.

Lima's CPI rose 0.69% m/m in February, well above consensus (0.23%). Annual inflation reached 2.2%, surpassing the target midpoint for the first time in over a year, driven by higher food prices, particularly poultry and vegetables, and a residential water tariff adjustment.

In January 2026, the national unemployment rate decreased to 10.9%, reaching its lowest level for this month since 2001. However, job creation experienced a deceleration, with an annual growth of 1.4%.

GDP grew 3.8% in December 2025, exceeding expectations and bringing full-year growth to 3.4%. The strength of the non-primary component (construction and trade) offset the weakness in the primary sector, which was affected by lower mining output.