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Banrep's Board maintained the pace of rate cuts of the last meetings, with a 50bp reduction in June, accumulating a total of 200bp since it began its downward rate cycle in December 2023. The decision was split, with 4 members in favor of the 50bp reduction, two members in favor of a 75bp reduction.
There are a wide number of important economic indicators that are not broadly disseminated when we refer to the economic situation and its forecasts. In this opportunity, we will focus on the most relevant macroeconomic balances: external and fiscal.
The Colombian economy is cycling towards recovery, with projections of moderate growth. Increasing investment and improving infrastructure are needed to accelerate the pace. Seizing local and external opportunities is crucial. Public-private co…
Output will grow 2,9% this year (previous forecast: 2,7%), supported by a new pension funds withdrawal. Sectors affected by weather anomalies in 2023 will recover and non-primary sectors too thanks to increased private spending. In 2025, once t…
The BBVA Forum is a quarterly event aimed at the bank's clients. In each edition, we present a summary of our global and national economic outlook as a contribution to their short- and medium-term financial decisions.
Banca de las Oportunidades recently published its 2023 financial inclusion report. According to the report, in 2023, Colombia reached almost universal financial inclusion. However, its credit inclusion is still low.
GDP expanded 5.3% YoY in April. This result was influenced by the fact that some activities were affected by two more days of productive activity given that Easter was celebrated in April last year, while this year it was scheduled in March.
In its June decision, the Board of the Central Bank decided maintain the reference rate at 5.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains in restrictive territory.
The Big Data Consumer Index grew for the fifth consecutive month in May, in an environment of lower inflation and interest rates, while the Big Data Investment Index contracted.
The country has been going backwards in pension security. We hope that this law is the beginning of a reversal of this situation and that, finally, responsible solutions are sought to guarantee an adequate level of protection during old age.
Colombia's economic growth will begin to accelerate gradually during the second half of the year. Domestic demand is expected to consolidate by 2025. Growth is projected at 1.8% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Inflation will continue to decrease, enabling the Central Bank to expedite rate cuts from the end of the year.
In May, monthly inflation was 0.43% and annual inflation was 7.16%, close to market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey (0.41%) and below our forecast (0.51%).
