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January 14, 2025
This aligns with market expectations, as outlined by BBVA (2.8%) and REM-BCRA (2.7%), and reflects a slight increase from November's rate of 2.4%. Consequently, the average price increase in the final quarter of the year was 2.6% MoM.
December 10, 2024
The economic recovery and the good financial context, within a framework of fiscal balance and monetary discipline, show that the worst of the crisis is over. Society maintains its support for the government, giving it room to address the challenges of fiscal balance sustainability and FX market flexibilization.
December 2, 2024
The change of cycle expected by the sector was confirmed. The repeal of the Rent Law, the resurgence of loans, a greater control of inflation and recovering real wages augur a further expansion of the real estate market.
November 22, 2024
Poverty in LATAM represents a complex and diverse challenge. On average, monetary poverty affects 37% of the population in Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. A Multidimensional Poverty Index constructed for these countries identifies key deprivations linked to health coverage, economic dependency, and education.
November 13, 2024
This is the lowest monthly value since November 2021, the last month in which monthly inflation started at 2. Prices are moving closer and closer to the official exchange rate peg, which is one of the government's main targets.
October 11, 2024
National inflation was 3.5% MoM (209% YoY) in September, in line with the average expectation of market analysts (BCRA consensus: 3.5%). This is the first time since Feb-22 that monthly inflation has breached the 4.0% floor.
October 1, 2024
The government maintains a firm commitment to fiscal balance while upholding a "zero monetary issuance" policy for all items arising from the public sector. The slowdown in inflation has stalled since May, remaining around 4% monthly, and economic activity shows signs that the recession may have ended in Q2 2024.
September 11, 2024
August inflation was 4.2% m/m and core inflation accelerated again. We revised our 2024 projection from 135% to 130% due to a longer than expected exchange rate crawling peg.
September 11, 2024
This paper examines the performance of Random Forest models in forecasting short-term monthly inflation in Argentina, based on a database of monthly indicators since 1962.
August 15, 2024
July national inflation was, as expected, the lowest of the year (4.0% m/m, 263.4% y/y). It was in line with market forecasts (BBVA: 4.1% m/m, Central Bank consensus: 3.9% m/m), although slightly above the Central Bank's forecast (3.7% m/m).
July 15, 2024
National inflation in June was 4.6% MoM (271.5% YoY) and accelerated with respect to the previous month (4.2% MoM) for the first time in the Milei administration but due to the disparate behaviour of regulated prices in both months. Even so, the value was lower than expected.
