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November 22, 2024
Poverty in LATAM represents a complex and diverse challenge. On average, monetary poverty affects 37% of the population in Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. A Multidimensional Poverty Index constructed for these countries identifies key deprivations linked to health coverage, economic dependency, and education.
November 13, 2024
This is the lowest monthly value since November 2021, the last month in which monthly inflation started at 2. Prices are moving closer and closer to the official exchange rate peg, which is one of the government's main targets.
October 11, 2024
National inflation was 3.5% MoM (209% YoY) in September, in line with the average expectation of market analysts (BCRA consensus: 3.5%). This is the first time since Feb-22 that monthly inflation has breached the 4.0% floor.
October 1, 2024
The government maintains a firm commitment to fiscal balance while upholding a "zero monetary issuance" policy for all items arising from the public sector. The slowdown in inflation has stalled since May, remaining around 4% monthly, and economic activity shows signs that the recession may have ended in Q2 2024.
September 11, 2024
August inflation was 4.2% m/m and core inflation accelerated again. We revised our 2024 projection from 135% to 130% due to a longer than expected exchange rate crawling peg.
September 11, 2024
This paper examines the performance of Random Forest models in forecasting short-term monthly inflation in Argentina, based on a database of monthly indicators since 1962.
August 15, 2024
July national inflation was, as expected, the lowest of the year (4.0% m/m, 263.4% y/y). It was in line with market forecasts (BBVA: 4.1% m/m, Central Bank consensus: 3.9% m/m), although slightly above the Central Bank's forecast (3.7% m/m).
July 15, 2024
National inflation in June was 4.6% MoM (271.5% YoY) and accelerated with respect to the previous month (4.2% MoM) for the first time in the Milei administration but due to the disparate behaviour of regulated prices in both months. Even so, the value was lower than expected.
July 1, 2024
The last two years in Latin America have been marked by differences in macroeconomic policy strategies. Chile and Peru have made significant interest rate reductions as their inflation has allowed. Meanwhile, Colombia and Mexico are more reluctant to implement significant reductions in their rates.
June 19, 2024
After 6 months in office, the government has made significant progress in improving the fiscal balance, which in turn resulted in a reduction of monetary issuance and a deceleration of inflation. The challenge now is to consolidate the fiscal surplus and dismantle FX-market restrictions to foster sustainable growth.
June 14, 2024
INDEC's monthly national inflation stood at 4.2% in May (276.4% y/y), the lowest in the last 29 months and much lower than expected (BBVA: 5.8% m/m, REM-BCRA: 5.2% m/m). Core inflation was the main downward surprise, reaching 3.7% m/m (277.3% y/y).
May 14, 2024
Monthly inflation had not reached values below 10% since October 2023; monthly core inflation (6.3% m/m, 292% y/y) was the lowest in 15 months, and is the key variable to monitor to measure the pace of disinflation in a context of correction of tariffs and other regulated prices.
