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After 6 months in office, the government has made significant progress in improving the fiscal balance, which in turn resulted in a reduction of monetary issuance and a deceleration of inflation. The challenge now is to consolidate the fiscal surplus and dismantle FX-market restrictions to foster sustainable growth.
INDEC's monthly national inflation stood at 4.2% in May (276.4% y/y), the lowest in the last 29 months and much lower than expected (BBVA: 5.8% m/m, REM-BCRA: 5.2% m/m). Core inflation was the main downward surprise, reaching 3.7% m/m (277.3% y/y).
Monthly inflation had not reached values below 10% since October 2023; monthly core inflation (6.3% m/m, 292% y/y) was the lowest in 15 months, and is the key variable to monitor to measure the pace of disinflation in a context of correction of…
March CPI rose 11.0% m/m and inflation marked the third consecutive monthly deceleration. The exchange rate anchor, the calm of the parallel exchange rates, the fiscal and monetary astringency and the drop in the level of activity are the main …
Javier Milei's government took office aiming to have a less regulated and more market friendly economy with the private sector as the main driver of economic growth. The core of his macroeconomic policy is to achieve fiscal equilibrium and elim…
The automotive sector once again had an outstanding performance among the different sectors of the economy despite the adverse local macroeconomic context that led to a significant increase in commercial debt with its headquarters. We expect 2024 to be a year with mixed results.
Javier Milei will be the new president of Argentina. He takes office with the challenge of correcting strong imbalances in the fiscal, monetary and exchange rate fronts. The adjustment of spending and changes in relative prices will lead to an acceleration of inflation and further contraction of GDP in the short term.
The surprising outcome of the primary elections left an open end to the October voting and heightened uncertainty, increasing volatility and further worsening expectations for the coming year. We maintain our scenario of recession and high infl…
The housing market is waiting for a change of cycle that will allow for greater stability and predictability. Rental supply is at historic lows. In the short term, we do not expect construction to be very dynamic.
The macroeconomic scenario deteriorated due to the strong impact of the drought, which substantially reduced agricultural exports, with negative effects on GDP and tax revenues.
2023 is a year with a heavy electoral calendar, in a context of growing social concern regarding macroeconomic imbalances and a historic drought. We expect sustained pressures in the FX market throughout the year, with consequences on the GDP and financial volatility.
The Latin American economy faces crosswinds in a scenario of disequilibrium, in line with international dynamics, where the main economic variables are still adjusting after the disruptive events of the most recent years.
