Forecasts
In this section, you will find forecasts by year from our economic analyses. Select the geography for which you wish to see data, or select data for "Commodities".
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Eurozone
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Mexico
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Spain
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Türkiye
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Argentina
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Colombia
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China
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Peru
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Uruguay
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USA
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Commodities
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Eurozone
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Mexico
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Spain
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Türkiye
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Argentina
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Colombia
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China
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Peru
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Uruguay
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USA
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Commodities
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| GDP (YoY, %) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Inflation (%, avg) |
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| ECB interest rate (%, eop) |
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| ECB interest rate (%, avg) |
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| 10y Bund yield (%, eop) |
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| 10y Bund yield (%, avg) |
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| USD/EUR (level, eop) |
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| USD/EUR (level, avg) |
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| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (YoY, %) | 3.46 | 0.53 | 0.75 | Neutral | 1.38 | Neutral | jun 06, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 9.20 | 2.93 | 2.71 | Neutral | 1.67 | Neutral | jun 06, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 8.38 | 5.42 | 2.48 | Neutral | 2.00 | Neutral | jun 06, 2024 |
| ECB interest rate (%, eop) | 2.50 | 4.50 | 3.40 | To the upside | 2.40 | To the upside | jun 06, 2024 |
| ECB interest rate (%, avg) | 0.73 | 3.90 | 4.13 | To the upside | 2.94 | To the upside | jun 06, 2024 |
| 10y Bund yield (%, eop) | 2.13 | 2.11 | 2.30 | Neutral | 2.20 | Neutral | jun 06, 2024 |
| 10y Bund yield (%, avg) | 1.19 | 2.46 | 2.38 | Neutral | 2.25 | Neutral | jun 06, 2024 |
| USD/EUR (level, eop) | 1.06 | 1.09 | 1.09 | To the downside | 1.14 | Neutral | jun 06, 2024 |
| USD/EUR (level, avg) | 1.05 | 1.08 | 1.08 | To the downside | 1.12 | Neutral | jun 06, 2024 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Formal Employment (%yoy, eop) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Monetary policy rate (%, eop) |
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| MXN/USD (level, eop) |
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| 10y bond (M10, %, eop) |
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| Fiscal balance (% GDP) |
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| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
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| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 3.90 | 3.20 | 2.50 | Neutral | 2.40 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
| Formal Employment (%yoy, eop) | 3.70 | 3.00 | 2.80 | Neutral | 3.20 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 7.80 | 4.70 | 3.90 | Neutral | 3.50 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
| Monetary policy rate (%, eop) | 10.50 | 11.25 | 9.25 | Neutral | 7.25 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
| MXN/USD (level, eop) | 19.60 | 17.20 | 18.20 | To the downside | 18.60 | To the downside | mar 13, 2024 |
| 10y bond (M10, %, eop) | 9.00 | 9.00 | 8.70 | Neutral | 7.90 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
| Fiscal balance (% GDP) | -3.20 | -3.30 | -4.90 | Neutral | -3.00 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -1.30 | -0.50 | -0.70 | Neutral | -0.70 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Inflation (%, avg) |
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| 10y bond (%, eop) |
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| 10y bond (%, avg) |
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| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
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| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
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| Employment growth (%yoy, avg) |
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| Unemployment rate (% Labour Force, avg) |
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| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 5.80 | 2.50 | 2.50 | Neutral | 2.10 | Neutral | jun 06, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 5.70 | 3.10 | 3.60 | Neutral | 2.10 | Neutral | jun 06, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 8.40 | 3.50 | 3.30 | Neutral | 2.40 | Neutral | jun 06, 2024 |
| 10y bond (%, eop) | 3.20 | 3.10 | 3.10 | Neutral | 3.30 | Neutral | jun 06, 2024 |
| 10y bond (%, avg) | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.20 | Neutral | 3.20 | Neutral | jun 06, 2024 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -4.70 | -3.60 | -2.90 | Neutral | -2.70 | Neutral | jun 06, 2024 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | 0.70 | 2.60 | 2.60 | Neutral | 2.20 | Neutral | jun 06, 2024 |
| Employment growth (%yoy, avg) | 3.70 | 3.20 | 2.70 | Neutral | 2.00 | Neutral | jun 06, 2024 |
| Unemployment rate (% Labour Force, avg) | 13.00 | 12.20 | 11.40 | Neutral | 10.80 | Neutral | jun 06, 2024 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| USD/TRY (end of period) |
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| EUR/TRY (end of period) |
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| 1 week repo rate (policy rate) |
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| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
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| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
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| Foreign trade balance (% GDP) |
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| Unemployment rate (%, eop) |
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| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 5.50 | 4.50 | 3.50 | To the upside | 3.10 | To the downside | jun 25, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 64.30 | 64.80 | 43.00 | To the downside | 25.00 | Neutral | jun 25, 2024 |
| USD/TRY (end of period) | 18.70 | 29.44 | 38.00 | To the downside | 45.50 | Neutral | jun 25, 2024 |
| EUR/TRY (end of period) | 19.93 | 32.57 | 41.35 | To the downside | 52.00 | Neutral | jun 25, 2024 |
| 1 week repo rate (policy rate) | 9.00 | 42.50 | 45.00 | To the upside | 30.00 | Neutral | jun 25, 2024 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -0.90 | -5.20 | -5.00 | To the upside | -3.30 | Neutral | jun 25, 2024 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -5.40 | -4.00 | -1.60 | Neutral | -1.70 | Neutral | jun 25, 2024 |
| Foreign trade balance (% GDP) | -12.10 | -9.50 | -7.10 | Neutral | -7.30 | Neutral | jun 25, 2024 |
| Unemployment rate (%, eop) | 10.50 | 9.40 | 9.30 | To the downside | 10.10 | To the upside | jun 25, 2024 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Inflation (%, avg) |
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| Official interest rate (%, eop) |
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| Official interest rate (%, avg) |
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| Primary Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
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| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
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| ARS/USD (level, eop) |
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| ARS/USD (level, avg) |
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| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 5.00 | -1.50 | -4.00 | To the downside | 6.00 | To the downside | mar 08, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 94.80 | 211.40 | 175.00 | To the upside | 50.00 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 72.40 | 133.50 | 272.80 | To the upside | 66.30 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) | 75.00 | 100.00 | 56.00 | To the upside | 39.20 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
| Official interest rate (%, avg) | 58.70 | 101.00 | 91.30 | To the upside | 45.60 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
| Primary Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -2.40 | -2.70 | -0.80 | Neutral | 0.00 | To the downside | mar 08, 2024 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -0.70 | -3.30 | 0.80 | Neutral | 0.00 | Neutral | mar 08, 2024 |
| ARS/USD (level, eop) | 177.10 | 808.50 | 1,500.00 | To the upside | 2,108.00 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
| ARS/USD (level, avg) | 130.70 | 296.50 | 1,166.20 | To the upside | 1,787.00 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Inflation (%, avg) |
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| Official interest rate (%, eop) |
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| Official interest rate (%, avg) |
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| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
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| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
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| COP/USD (level, eop) |
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| COP/USD (level, avg) |
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| Exchange rate depreciation (yoy, %, eop) [positive means depreciation] |
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| Exchange rate depreciation (yoy, %, avg) [positive means depreciation] |
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| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 7.30 | 0.60 | 1.80 | -- | 2.80 | -- | jun 13, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 13.10 | 9.30 | 5.40 | -- | 3.80 | -- | jun 13, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 10.20 | 11.70 | 6.80 | -- | 4.10 | -- | jun 13, 2024 |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) | 12.00 | 13.00 | 8.50 | -- | 6.00 | -- | jun 13, 2024 |
| Official interest rate (%, avg) | 7.88 | 13.13 | 10.92 | -- | 6.60 | -- | jun 13, 2024 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -5.30 | -4.30 | -5.60 | -- | -5.00 | -- | jun 24, 2024 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -6.20 | -2.70 | -2.90 | -- | -3.50 | -- | jun 13, 2024 |
| COP/USD (level, eop) | 4,788.00 | 3,954.00 | 4,155.00 | -- | 4,190.00 | -- | jun 13, 2024 |
| COP/USD (level, avg) | 4,256.20 | 4,326.00 | 3,986.80 | -- | 4,175.90 | -- | jun 13, 2024 |
| Exchange rate depreciation (yoy, %, eop) [positive means depreciation] | 20.70 | -17.40 | 5.10 | -- | 0.80 | -- | jun 13, 2024 |
| Exchange rate depreciation (yoy, %, avg) [positive means depreciation] | 13.70 | 1.60 | -7.80 | -- | 4.70 | -- | jun 13, 2024 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Inflation (%, avg) |
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| Official interest rate (%, eop) |
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| Official interest rate (%, avg) |
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| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
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| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
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| CNY/USD (level, eop) |
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| CNY/USD (level, avg) |
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| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 3.00 | 5.20 | 4.60 | To the upside | 4.20 | To the upside | mar 09, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 1.80 | -0.80 | 2.00 | To the downside | 1.80 | To the downside | mar 09, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 2.00 | 0.20 | 1.40 | To the downside | 1.80 | To the downside | mar 09, 2024 |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) | 3.65 | 3.45 | 3.25 | Neutral | 3.15 | Neutral | mar 09, 2024 |
| Official interest rate (%, avg) | 3.70 | 3.60 | 3.40 | Neutral | 3.15 | Neutral | mar 09, 2024 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -5.00 | -5.10 | -4.00 | Neutral | -4.00 | Neutral | mar 09, 2024 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | 2.20 | 1.50 | 1.20 | Neutral | 0.90 | Neutral | mar 09, 2024 |
| CNY/USD (level, eop) | 6.90 | 7.10 | 6.95 | Neutral | 6.80 | Neutral | mar 09, 2024 |
| CNY/USD (level, avg) | 6.73 | 7.10 | 7.00 | Neutral | 6.80 | Neutral | mar 09, 2024 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Official interest rate (%, eop) |
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| 10y bond (%, eop) |
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| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
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| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
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| PEN/USD (level, eop) |
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| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 2.70 | -0.60 | 2.90 | Neutral | 2.70 | Neutral | jun 24, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 8.50 | 3.20 | 2.60 | Neutral | 2.40 | Neutral | jun 24, 2024 |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) | 7.50 | 6.75 | 5.00 | To the upside | 4.50 | Neutral | jun 24, 2024 |
| 10y bond (%, eop) | 7.83 | 6.82 | 7.30 | Neutral | 7.15 | Neutral | jun 24, 2024 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -1.70 | -2.80 | -2.50 | To the downside | -2.20 | Neutral | jun 24, 2024 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -4.00 | 0.80 | 1.40 | Neutral | 0.50 | Neutral | jun 24, 2024 |
| PEN/USD (level, eop) | 3.83 | 3.74 | 3.80 | Neutral | 3.75 | Neutral | jun 24, 2024 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Inflation (%, avg) |
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| Official interest rate (%, eop) |
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| Official interest rate (%, avg) |
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| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
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| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
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| UYU/USD (level, eop) |
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| UYU/USD (level, avg) |
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| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 4.90 | 0.60 | 3.30 | To the upside | 2.70 | Neutral | mar 08, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 8.30 | 5.10 | 6.40 | To the upside | 6.40 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 9.10 | 5.90 | 5.70 | To the upside | 5.70 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) | 11.50 | 9.00 | 8.00 | To the upside | 7.00 | Neutral | mar 08, 2024 |
| Official interest rate (%, avg) | 9.30 | 10.60 | 8.90 | To the upside | 7.40 | Neutral | mar 08, 2024 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -3.40 | -3.80 | -3.10 | Neutral | -2.60 | Neutral | mar 08, 2024 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -3.70 | -3.60 | -2.10 | Neutral | -1.20 | Neutral | mar 08, 2024 |
| UYU/USD (level, eop) | 38.90 | 39.30 | 42.30 | To the upside | 44.50 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
| UYU/USD (level, avg) | 41.20 | 38.80 | 40.60 | To the upside | 43.50 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Inflation (%, 4Qo4Q) |
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| Inflation (%, avg) |
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| Fed interest rate (%, eop) |
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| Fed interest rate (%, avg) |
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| 10y T bond (%, eop) |
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| 10y T bond (%, avg) |
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| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 1.90 | 2.50 | 1.90 | Neutral | 2.30 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, 4Qo4Q) | 7.10 | 3.20 | 2.60 | Neutral | 2.40 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 8.00 | 4.10 | 2.70 | Neutral | 2.40 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
| Fed interest rate (%, eop) | 4.50 | 5.50 | 4.50 | Neutral | 3.00 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
| Fed interest rate (%, avg) | 2.02 | 5.23 | 5.08 | Neutral | 3.63 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
| 10y T bond (%, eop) | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.90 | Neutral | 3.70 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
| 10y T bond (%, avg) | 3.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | Neutral | 3.80 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| Brent Oil price (USD/b) Year avg | 99.10 | 82.20 | 84.20 | -- | 81.80 | -- | jun 13, 2024 |
| Copper price (¢USD/lb.) Year avg | 400.00 | 385.00 | 426.00 | Neutral | 420.00 | Neutral | jun 24, 2024 |
| Soybean price (USD/ton) Year avg | 569.60 | 520.40 | 434.10 | To the downside | 435.00 | To the downside | mar 08, 2024 |
