Seda Guler Mert is the Chief Economist of Turkey at BBVA Research. She leads a team of economists having expertise on the macroeconomic analysis of the Turkish Economy, specific issues on the Turkish financial system, political and geopolitical analysis of the country, and quantitative analysis and economic modeling. The team conducts a new line of research on Big Data and Applied Economic Analysis in order to improve macroeconomic forecasting and real-time analysis of the economy in high definition.
She made a major degree in Economics and a minor degree in Mathematics at Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. She also made her Master’s degree in Financial Engineering at Bogazici University, Istanbul. She has taken different courses and received certificates on “Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting”, “Macroeconomic Challenges of Global Imbalances” and “Financial Programming and Policies” from IIF, LSE, and IMF, respectively.November 21, 2024
The CBRT kept the policy rate at 50% with important changes in their communication, signaling an easing cycle as early as December. We believe the CBRT will be required to start with very cautious steps and expect the first rate cut in December with 100bps.
October 17, 2024
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the policy rate, keeping a tone similar to September MPC, despite the negative surprise of the September inflation. We maintain our first rate cut expectation in December with a 250 bps cut, where the timing and magnitude would depend on how the monthly inflation trend is improving.
September 19, 2024
The Central Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 50%. The bank smoothed its tone by changing the statement that monetary policy will be tightened when necessary to that monetary policy tools will be used effectively. Still, they emphasize inflation expectations and pricing behaviors as risks to the disinflation.
