Berfin Kardaslar works as an Economist at Garanti - BBVA Research since November 2024. She obtained her bachelor’s degree in Economics from Middle East Technical University and her master’s degree in Analysis and Policy in Economics from the Paris School of Economics. Currently, she is in the dissertation phase of her doctoral studies at Humboldt University of Berlin.
Before her tenure at Garanti BBVA, Berfin served as a Research Associate at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) and as a Teaching Assistant at Humboldt University of Berlin.March 3, 2025
Consumer prices rose by 2.27% m/m in February, lower than both consensus (3%) and our expectation (2.9%), leading to a decline in annual inflation (39.1%). We maintain our 2025 end inflation forecast of 29%, which we had revised from 26.5%, following the upward revision of the CBRT in the first inflation report of the year.
February 28, 2025
The Turkish economy grew by 1.7% q/q in 4Q24, close to our expectations, leading to 3.2% y/y growth in 2024. Our monthly GDP nowcast shows a continuation of the recovery trend in 1Q25 with a 1-1.5% q/q growth as flash indicators signal as of February.
February 3, 2025
Consumer inflation climbed up to 5.03% m/m, higher than consensus and our expectation (both at 4.3%), while annual inflation declined further to 42.12% on favorable base effects. We maintain our year-end 2025 inflation forecasts of 26.5%, despite the existence of more pronounced upward inflationary risks.
