Berfin Kardaslar works as an Economist at Garanti - BBVA Research since November 2024. She obtained her bachelor’s degree in Economics from Middle East Technical University and her master’s degree in Analysis and Policy in Economics from the Paris School of Economics. Currently, she is in the dissertation phase of her doctoral studies at Humboldt University of Berlin.
Before her tenure at Garanti BBVA, Berfin served as a Research Associate at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) and as a Teaching Assistant at Humboldt University of Berlin.December 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.24 m/m in November, higher than consensus (2.0%), with no improvement in the underlying inflation trend. Considering November realizations, we evaluate annual consumer inflation is likely to finish the year at around 45% and decline to 26.5% in 2025 on our assumption of an effective policy mix.
November 29, 2024
Turkish economy experienced a mild recession, in line with our expectations, contracting by 0.2% q/q in 3Q24 (vs. -0.2% q/q in 2Q24) and posting 2.1 y/y growth. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts point to a weak quarterly GDP growth for 4Q24, which could result nearly 3% y/y in 2024.
November 20, 2024
Growth outlook remained weak, while the demand indicators point to a slower-than-desired correction. Considering tight financial conditions and the gradual moderation in domestic demand, we expect the economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2024 but downside risks are increasing on our 2.7% growth forecast for 2025.
