Batuhan Barlas works as a Principal Economist at Garanti BBVA since September 2016. His main responsibilities include development and management of macro-econometric models, generating macro-financial forecasts and macroeconomic analysis of Turkey in general.
He received his BA degree in Economics from Bogazici University, Istanbul. He continued his graduate studies in Economics at Bogazici University and the University of Maryland, College Park.Prior to joining Garanti Research, he worked as a Research Assistant at Bogazici University and Risk Management Specialist at Fibabanka.January 17, 2025
Incoming hard data points to a faster recovery in 4Q24 than our previous stagnant growth expectation on quarterly basis. We expect the GDP growth to reach around 3% in 2024 but acknowledge some upside risks recently emerge on our 2025 growth forecast of 2.5%.
November 29, 2024
Turkish economy experienced a mild recession, in line with our expectations, contracting by 0.2% q/q in 3Q24 (vs. -0.2% q/q in 2Q24) and posting 2.1 y/y growth. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts point to a weak quarterly GDP growth for 4Q24, which could result nearly 3% y/y in 2024.
November 20, 2024
Growth outlook remained weak, while the demand indicators point to a slower-than-desired correction. Considering tight financial conditions and the gradual moderation in domestic demand, we expect the economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2024 but downside risks are increasing on our 2.7% growth forecast for 2025.
