Adem Ileri works as a Principal Economist at Garanti BBVA since January, 2018. His main responsibility is making macroeconomic analysis of Turkey.
He hold both BA and MSc degrees in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. Before joining Garanti Bank, he worked as a Research Assistant at METU and as a Specialist in Economic Research Unit at Turk EximBank (Export Credit Bank of Turkey).November 20, 2024
Growth outlook remained weak, while the demand indicators point to a slower-than-desired correction. Considering tight financial conditions and the gradual moderation in domestic demand, we expect the economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2024 but downside risks are increasing on our 2.7% growth forecast for 2025.
November 4, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.88 m/m in September, higher than our expectation and consensus (2.7% vs. 2.5%), while the monthly consumer inflation trend eased only limitedly. We now expect year-end inflation to be nearly 45% and risks on our 2025 year-end forecast of 25% become clearly tilted to the upside.
October 17, 2024
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the policy rate, keeping a tone similar to September MPC, despite the negative surprise of the September inflation. We maintain our first rate cut expectation in December with a 250 bps cut, where the timing and magnitude would depend on how the monthly inflation trend is improving.
