Adem Ileri works as a Principal Economist at Garanti – BBVA Research since January, 2018. His main responsibility is making macroeconomic analysis of Turkey.
He hold both BA and MSc degrees in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. Before joining Garanti Bank, he worked as a Research Assistant at METU and as a Specialist in Economic Research Unit at Turk EximBank (Export Credit Bank of Turkey).April 3, 2025
Consumer inflation rose by 2.46% m/m, lower than both our expectation (3%) and the market consensus (2.9%), driving annual inflation down to 38.1%. We have revised our 2025 year-end inflation forecast to 32% from 29% on the expected pass-through from the recent currency depreciation.
March 6, 2025
The Central Bank (CBRT) lowered the policy rate by 250bps to 42.5% as expected. Following the positive surprise of Feb CPI, the CBRT remains comfortable despite stronger domestic demand than expected. We expect 250bps cut in April and the pace of rate cuts to decelerate June onwards, reaching 31.5% policy rate by end 2025.
March 3, 2025
Consumer prices rose by 2.27% m/m in February, lower than both consensus (3%) and our expectation (2.9%), leading to a decline in annual inflation (39.1%). We maintain our 2025 end inflation forecast of 29%, which we had revised from 26.5%, following the upward revision of the CBRT in the first inflation report of the year.
