Adem Ileri works as a Principal Economist at Garanti BBVA since January, 2018. His main responsibility is making macroeconomic analysis of Turkey.
He hold both BA and MSc degrees in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. Before joining Garanti Bank, he worked as a Research Assistant at METU and as a Specialist in Economic Research Unit at Turk EximBank (Export Credit Bank of Turkey).December 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.24 m/m in November, higher than consensus (2.0%), with no improvement in the underlying inflation trend. Considering November realizations, we evaluate annual consumer inflation is likely to finish the year at around 45% and decline to 26.5% in 2025 on our assumption of an effective policy mix.
November 29, 2024
Turkish economy experienced a mild recession, in line with our expectations, contracting by 0.2% q/q in 3Q24 (vs. -0.2% q/q in 2Q24) and posting 2.1 y/y growth. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts point to a weak quarterly GDP growth for 4Q24, which could result nearly 3% y/y in 2024.
November 21, 2024
The CBRT kept the policy rate at 50% with important changes in their communication, signaling an easing cycle as early as December. We believe the CBRT will be required to start with very cautious steps and expect the first rate cut in December with 100bps.
