Filter all of our publications to find the ones about the geography you are most interested in.
Filter all of our publications to find the ones you are most interested in by content language, date, geography and/or topic.
December 5, 2024
GDP will grow 2.5% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, driven by private consumption in durable goods, semi-durables, and services starting in 2026, and by fixed investment in infrastructure, machinery, and housing. Inflation will be 3.1% in 2026, with lower interest rates strengthening financial conditions.
December 5, 2024
GDP growth in 2024 has been revised upward by 0.2 percentage points, reaching 3.1%, driven by stronger-than-expected performance in the third quarter and a slight acceleration in job creation in the fourth. Growth is projected at 2.3% in 2025 and could settle at 1.7% in 2026.
December 4, 2024
The Peruvian economy will grow 3,1% in 2024, 0,2pp more than expected in October. The revision mainly reflects the third quarter positive surprise. For 2025 we expect a 2,7% expansion, amid a challenging external context, but also when large infrastructure projects will begin construction.
December 4, 2024
Growth will be around 3% for the third consecutive year in 2024, but a slowdown ahead is likely, driven by a less supportive global environment and higher-than-anticipated SELIC rates. The balance of risks has recently worsened, reflecting global factors and rising concerns over fiscal imbalances.
December 2, 2024
The change of cycle expected by the sector was confirmed. The repeal of the Rent Law, the resurgence of loans, a greater control of inflation and recovering real wages augur a further expansion of the real estate market.
December 2, 2024
We expect US protectionism to fuel uncertainty, and pressure global growth downwards and inflation upwards. In Türkiye, soft landing efforts remain on growth and employment outlook, increasing the downside risks on public spending cuts. Monetary policy communication becomes less hawkish and signals an easing cycle soon.
November 28, 2024
We keep our GDP growth forecast for 2024 unchanged at 1.2%, and 1.0% for 2025; the favorable impact of economic activity in 2H24 is offset by lower exports and investment in the face of new tariffs next year.
November 4, 2024
The Mexican economy will grow at an annual rate of 1.2% by the end of 2024. Construction will close with a GDP growth of 10.1%, accumulated to the 2Q24, and will sustain the weak growth of the Mexican economy in 2024.
Filter all of our publications to find the ones about the geography you are most interested in.
Filter all of our publications to find the ones you are most interested in by content language, date, geography and/or topic.
December 17, 2024
Although we think there is a 40% chance of a 50bp cut, the Board will most likely end sticking to another 25bp cut. A 50bp rate cut would be a sound policy decision considering the excessively restrictive real ex-ante rate and the progress of disinflation.
December 16, 2024
Although they will continue to formally stay out of the debate around Trump 2.0, it is likely that several FOMC participants have begun to incorporate into their thinking some of the obvious effects of potential trade, fiscal and immigration policies.
December 16, 2024
Activity advanced 3.4% year-on-year in October. By productive sectors, the behavior of the non-primary component of GDP stood out, which registered an expansion of 4.2% and within this the sustained improvement of non-primary manufacturing (greater manufacturing of consumer and capital goods), construction and trade.
December 16, 2024
2024 has been less challenging for central banks as the disinflation process consolidates, building confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target. In 2025, the challenges will be greater and the debates more intense.
