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GDP growth forecasts have been revised upwards by 0.4 percentage points for 2024 to reach 2.9%, and by 0.3 pp for 2025 to reach 2.4%. This is due to statistical revisions of historical data, recent developments more favorable than expected, and improved estimates of external and internal demand contributions.
Despite uncertainty and high interest rates, investment remains strong in countries like the U.S. and France, especially in intellectual property and ICT, but not in Spain, Canada, and most emerging markets. GDP growth remains key, but digitalization and climate transition policies will drive future investment.
Restrictive monetary policy and tight financial conditions lead output gap to turn into negative in 3Q24. Fiscal consolidation is projected for 2025, which could provide room for a gradual monetary easing. Overall, the policy mix will become mo…
Growth and inflation moderate; we estimate that a continuous cycle of rate cuts has begun. We revised downward the economic growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 given the weakening of domestic demand.
GDP will grow 2.9% this year and 2.7% in 2025. Private spending will gain traction in the coming quarters, supported by more favourable financial conditions, the impact of private pension funds withdrawals, and the beginning of construction of …
The Chinese economy is experiencing structural rebalancing amid deep real estate adjustment. Due to the large-scale stimulus package, we believe the economy will bottom out in the near future.
The government maintains a firm commitment to fiscal balance while upholding a "zero monetary issuance" policy for all items arising from the public sector. The slowdown in inflation has stalled since May, remaining around 4% monthly, and economic activity shows signs that the recession may have ended in Q2 2024.
Domestic demand will lead Colombia’s economic recovery, driven by improved financial conditions that will strengthen consumption and investment. This will provide a significant boost to sectors such as manufacturing and retail. In the long run,…
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In August, both deposits and credit rose in annual terms with respect to July, supported, in part, by the accounting effect of the exchange rate depreciation. Companies and other financial intermediaries were behind the increase in deposits, while consumer and business credit supported credit.
Formal employment grew by 1.6% in September. Despite the increase, the growth was lower than expected, reflecting a more significant slowdown and worsening short- and medium-term employment expectations, influenced by the country's anticipated lower economic growth and uncertainty.
Rising tensions in Asia, both between China and Taiwan and between North and South Korea, are adding to the woes of the Middle East.
The European Central Bank (ECB) can take satisfaction from recent inflation data from the eurozone. Much of the downside surprise has been due to the drop in oil, but there is also some progress in services prices. Coupled with economic weaknes…
After the good result in July, activity advanced 3.5% year-on-year in August. The performance of the activity continues to be relatively positive if one considers that in August of this year there were two fewer working days compared to the sam…
