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After a weak GDP growth of 0.4% in 2023, activity will grow 3.2% in 2024 due to the recovery of the agricultural sector, hydroelectric power generation and private consumption. Even so, reforms are needed to gain competitiveness and maintain a sustainable growth path.
We will review our growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 once the reform of the judicial system is known, which could have significant impacts on investment
In 2024, strength of employment and services exports, maintain dynamism in Madrid, the Mediterranean and the islands. In 2025, tourism will lose momentum. Higher European demand and the end of the drought will shift growth to regions with more …
After 6 months in office, the government has made significant progress in improving the fiscal balance, which in turn resulted in a reduction of monetary issuance and a deceleration of inflation. The challenge now is to consolidate the fiscal s…
Output will grow 2,9% this year (previous forecast: 2,7%), supported by a new pension funds withdrawal. Sectors affected by weather anomalies in 2023 will recover and non-primary sectors too thanks to increased private spending. In 2025, once t…
Formal employment in Mexico continues decelerating, growing 2.2% in May 2024, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. Job creation is expected to pick up in the third quarter but at a slower pace than in 2023.
GDP growth forecast for 2024 is raised to 2.5% thanks to the good performance of external demand, the increase in the labor force, and the execution of Recovery Plan funds. However, it will moderate to 2.1% in 2025, largely due to constraints in tourism growth.
Colombia's economic growth will begin to accelerate gradually during the second half of the year. Domestic demand is expected to consolidate by 2025. Growth is projected at 1.8% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Inflation will continue to decrease, ena…
We summarize the recent development of the Chinese economy and highlight the unbalanced economic structure. Risks include the housing market, geopolitics, deflation and unbalanced economic structure. We also analyze the ongoing fiscal and monet…
The committed actions against inflation are well-received. Foreign currency demand of residents prior to the March local election has reversed and foreigners’ inflow for Turkish assets has accelerated. Yet, lagging fiscal measures & macro-prude…
Filter all of our publications to find the ones about the geography you are most interested in.
Filter all of our publications to find the ones you are most interested in by content language, date, geography and/or topic.
In the 2024-I quarter, on average, the population in labor poverty was able to cover only 42.3% of the food basket with their labor income. In Baja California, Guerrero and Oaxaca, people in labor poverty can purchase less than 1/3 of the food basket.
Social Security contributors rose by 71,100, while unemployment fell by 46,800, aligning with expectations. Seasonally adjusted, affiliation grew by 0.8% QoQ in Q2 2024, slightly higher than in Q1 2024, and unemployment decreased by 2.1% QoQ (-1.8% in Q1 2024).
The surprise at the end of 2023 introduced a positive bias in deficit forecasts for 2024. Improved activity and the withdrawal of measures to mitigate rising prices could bring the public deficit below 3% of GDP. Fiscal improvement in 2025 will…
In 2024, the Spanish economy presents a heterogeneous outlook, with different autonomous communities showing significant variations in their growth prospects. In this quarter's BBVA Research Regional Economic Outlook report we explore the most …
In the last 5 years, the effect of “Mother's Day” drove the arrival of 6.5% more remittances in the month of May, compared to the trend marked by the adjacent months of April and June. In 2024, this translates into an amount close to 364 millio…
