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Mexico faces significant structural economic challenges, with informality standing out as one of the most complex to address. Although there have been efforts to understand and analyze informality from various perspectives, these efforts have little impact as they remain outside the debate and action of public policy.
There is still no clear indication of a severe slowdown in the labor market, though it has weakened more than it initially appears. The slower rate of job creation, coupled with frequent downward adjustments to monthly employment figures, suggests a labor market that remains robust but not excessively tight.
After a weak GDP growth of 0.4% in 2023, activity will grow 3.2% in 2024 due to the recovery of the agricultural sector, hydroelectric power generation and private consumption. Even so, reforms are needed to gain competitiveness and maintain a …
We will review our growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 once the reform of the judicial system is known, which could have significant impacts on investment
After 6 months in office, the government has made significant progress in improving the fiscal balance, which in turn resulted in a reduction of monetary issuance and a deceleration of inflation. The challenge now is to consolidate the fiscal s…
Output will grow 2,9% this year (previous forecast: 2,7%), supported by a new pension funds withdrawal. Sectors affected by weather anomalies in 2023 will recover and non-primary sectors too thanks to increased private spending. In 2025, once the impact of pension funds withdrawals is exhausted, growth would reach 2,7%.
Formal employment in Mexico continues decelerating, growing 2.2% in May 2024, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. Job creation is expected to pick up in the third quarter but at a slower pace than in 2023.
Filter all of our publications to find the ones about the geography you are most interested in.
Filter all of our publications to find the ones you are most interested in by content language, date, geography and/or topic.
National inflation in June was 4.6% MoM (271.5% YoY) and accelerated with respect to the previous month (4.2% MoM) for the first time in the Milei administration but due to the disparate behaviour of regulated prices in both months. Even so, the value was lower than expected.
GDP grew 5.0% y/y in May. The expansion of the fishing sector and primary manufacturing stood out (together they reflect the effect of the greater catch of anchovy). We estimate that the direct contribution of this factor to GDP growth is 2.5 percentage points, which represents half of the expansion rate for the month.
Higher interest rates have had no significant effect on risk assets. Ample liquidity, the soft landing of the economy and contained corporate and household balance sheets are behind this trend.
Spain faces two problems hindering its per capita income convergence toward the EU level: unemployment and low productivity growth.
Mexico faces significant structural economic challenges, with informality standing out as one of the most complex to address. Although there have been efforts to understand and analyze informality from various perspectives, these efforts have l…
