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    BBVA Research Publications

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    April 11, 2025

    Peru | Central Bank will maintain pause in the short term

    In its April meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to keep the policy rate at 4.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains slightly above neutral.

    April 8, 2025

    Colombia | Inflation Ends 4-Month Stable Streak, Settles at 5.1% in March.

    In March 2025 Colombia's total inflation decreased to an annual rate of 5.1% breaking a four-month period of stability or slight increase. This moderation was primarily driven by a decline in non-food inflation, particularly due to the regulated basket. March monthly inflation was 0.52% falling below analysts' expectations.

    April 7, 2025

    Latam | Economic normalization amid an uncertain environment

    The last months of 2024 gave some glimpses of the challenges Latam could face in the coming years. However, looking beyond the first quarter of 2025, some—albeit not all—of these warning signs have faded.

    April 4, 2025

    Colombia | BanRep: A welcome surprise!

    The Banco de la República kept its interest rate unchanged in March, in a context of mixed variables surrounding the decision. In the end, the Bank prioritized economic stability, offering a significant demonstration of independence and technical expertise.

    April 1, 2025

    Peru | Year-on-year inflation continues to decline in March, despite rising food prices

    The CPI increased 0.81% month-over-month in March, driven by weather anomalies and the adjustment in student pensions. In contrast, the decrease in transportation prices and the return to normal fare prices after the Carnival holidays helped moderate inflation.

    March 31, 2025

    Colombia | Banco de la República maintained its policy rate stable at 9.5%

    The Board of the Banco de la República kept the policy rate unchanged at 9.5% in a split decision (4 to 3). The decision was based on inflationary and fiscal risks, as well as external uncertainty.

    March 21, 2025

    Colombia | The Decline in Birth Rates: Social Progress or Future Risk?

    Birth rates in Colombia have dropped to 1.6 children per woman, accelerating aging. This pressures pension and healthcare systems. Encouraging births without improving labor and care conditions is ineffective. Public policy must adjust with reforms to ensure sustainability and well-being.

    March 18, 2025

    Peru Economic Outlook. March 2025

    The Peruvian economy will grow 3.1% in 2025, 0.4 percentage points more than forecast in December. This change primarily reflects higher expected growth in the US and China and earlier and increased investment flows into some mining and infrastructure projects. Growth is projected to remain at 2.7% for 2026.

    March 17, 2025

    Peru | Dynamic activity continued in January

    GDP grew 4.1% year-on-year in January. By productive sector, the primary component stood out (up 4.4%) due to the strong expansion of the fishing sector and the resulting expansion of primary manufacturing. The non-primary component grew 3.2%.

    March 14, 2025

    Peru | The monetary pause is extended due to increased uncertainty over trade policies

    In its March meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to keep the policy rate at 4.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains slightly above neutral.